Global trade is no longer a neutral marketplace but a field organised around geopolitical blocs and security concerns. For an exceptionally open economy like the EU, this shift reshapes supply chains, industrial policy and foreign economic strategy. This analysis examines how European firms are adapting, how Brussels is using industrial, trade and economic security tools to de risk critical dependencies, and why deepening the single market and investing in innovation may matter as much as new tariffs or subsidies in navigating an era of trade fragmentation.

Johannesburg’s G20 summit marked a turn toward treating artificial intelligence as part of a broader development and infrastructure project led by emerging economies. The piece traces how Global South coalitions are weaving AI into agendas on equity, digital public infrastructure, and information integrity, and explores the strategic risks for a technologically dominant but normatively absent United States.

Ukraine’s corruption crisis, shifting US policy, and high-stakes peace negotiations are converging at a moment when the country must defend both its territory and the integrity of its institutions. This analysis examines how wartime governance failures, geopolitical recalibration, and Russia’s long strategy are reshaping the prospects for a durable settlement and Ukraine’s place in Europe’s security order.

A U.S.-backed peace plan for Ukraine is moving quickly, even as the front stabilizes into a brutal war of attrition. This analysis unpacks the real balance on the battlefield, the pressures on Kyiv’s leadership, Washington and Brussels’ shifting priorities, and the economic and political constraints facing Moscow. It argues that a rushed settlement that rewards Russian gains without firm security guarantees and long-term European defense commitments would not end the conflict, but virtually guarantee the next one.

Artificial intelligence now depends as much on electricity grids, semiconductor capacity, industrial policy, and geopolitical strategy as on algorithms. This analysis explains how power constraints, chip competition, infrastructure bottlenecks, open ecosystems, robotics, and global standards battles are reshaping the AI race. It assesses the economic, labor, and security implications of a technology that is moving from software novelty to national capability.

The global economy enters 2026 steady on the surface but strained beneath. Growth is positive yet uneven across regions, inflation is easing but not resolved, labor shortages persist in advanced economies, and financial markets rely on assumptions that may not hold. This report examines the shifting balance of global demand, currency dynamics, sovereign risks, market behavior, and structural vulnerabilities that will shape policy decisions and investment conditions in the year ahead.